Mapping the Gap

Visualizing and Understanding Discrepancies Between Climate Extremes, Environmental Attitudes, and Political Action

Abstract

The impact of extreme weather events on environmental attitudes and political action has received increasing attention in the social and environmental sciences. However, existing evidence remains mixed, and it is unclear whether exposure to such events translates into attitudinal or behavioral changes. Our study contributes to this debate by examining whether and how regional exposure to heat and drought is associated with environmental concerns about climate change and green political behavior across Germany between 2018 and 2022. In particular, we ask how these relationships vary across space and to what extent they can be explained by sociodemographic characteristics and regional context. To address these questions, we combine geocoded survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel with weather data from the German Meteorological Service, local protest data from Fridays for Future, and regional indicators from official statistics. Our analysis consists of bivariate gap maps at the regional level and multivariate regressions at the individual level. The findings indicate that exposure to heat and drought is associated with only slightly greater concerns about climate change and a modestly higher likelihood of supporting the Greens or participating in Fridays for Future protests. By contrast, individual characteristics – especially education, gender, and age – as well as persistent differences between urban and rural areas and between Eastern and Western Germany account for substantially more variation. Nevertheless, weather effects remain statistically significant even after controlling for sociodemographic characteristics and regional context. Subsequent analyses using more refined models will assess the magnitude and robustness of these associations.